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Science Communication
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What's this?

"Prediction" or "Projection"?

The Nomenclature of Climate Science

Dennis Bray

GKSS Forschungszentrum, Geesthacht, Germany

Hans von Storch

GKSS Forschungszentrum, Geesthacht, Germany

A survey among climate scientists is used to examine the terminology concerning two key concepts in climate science, namely, predictions and projections, as used among climate scientists. The survey data suggest that the terminology used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is not adopted, or only loosely adopted, by a significant minority of scientists. Contrary to established guidelines, approximately 29% of the respondents associate probable developments with projections, and approximately 20% of the respondents associate possible developments with predictions.

Key Words: climate change • climate models • prediction • projection • survey of climate scientists

This version was published on June 1, 2009

Science Communication, Vol. 30, No. 4, 534-543 (2009)
DOI: 10.1177/1075547009333698
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